Digital Disease Surveillance for Emerging Infectious Diseases: An Early Warning System Using the Internet and Social Media Data for COVID-19 Forecasting in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) are a significant threat to population health globally. We aimed to examine the relationship between internet search engine queries and social media data on COVID-19 and determine if they can predict COVID-19 cases in Canada. METHODS: We analyzed Google Trends (GT) and Twitter data from 1/1/2020 to 3/31/2020 in Canada and used various signal-processing techniques to remove noise from the data. Data on COVID-19 cases was obtained from the COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group. We conducted time-lagged cross-correlation analyses and developed the long short-term memory model for forecasting daily COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: Among symptom keywords, "cough," "runny nose," and "anosmia" were strong signals with high cross-correlation coefficients >0.8 ( rCough = 0.825, t - 9; rRunnyNose = 0.816, t - 11; rAnosmia = 0.812, t - 3 ), showing that searching for "cough," "runny nose," and "anosmia" on GT correlated with the incidence of COVID-19 and peaked 9, 11, and 3 days earlier than the incidence peak, respectively. For symptoms- and COVID-related Tweet counts, the cross-correlations of Tweet signals and daily cases were rTweetSymptoms = 0.868, t - 11 and tTweetCOVID = 0.840, t - 10, respectively. The LSTM forecasting model achieved the best performance (MSE = 124.78, R2 = 0.88, adjusted R2 = 0.87) using GT signals with cross-correlation coefficients >0.75. Combining GT and Tweet signals did not improve the model performance. CONCLUSION: Internet search engine queries and social media data can be used as early warning signals for creating a real-time surveillance system for COVID-19 forecasting, but challenges remain in modelling.

Investigating Canadian Public Attitudes Toward COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates with a Nested Analysis Framework.

BACKGROUND: Social media is an important medium for studying public attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccine mandates in Canada, and Reddit network communities are a good source for this. METHODS: This study applied a "nested analysis" framework. We collected 20378 Reddit comments via the Pushshift API and developed a BERT-based binary classification model to screen for relevance to COVID-19 vaccine mandates. We then used a Guided Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model on relevant comments to extract key topics and assign each comment to its most relevant topic. RESULTS: There were 3179 (15.6%) relevant and 17199 (84.4%) irrelevant comments. Our BERT-based model achieved 91% accuracy trained with 300 Reddit comments after 60 epochs. The Guided LDA model had an optimal coherence score of 0.471 with four topics: travel, government, certification, and institutions. Human evaluation of the Guided LDA model showed an 83% accuracy in assigning samples to their topic groups. CONCLUSION: We develop a screening tool for filtering and analyzing Reddit comments on COVID-19 vaccine mandates through topic modelling. Future research could develop more effective seed word-choosing and evaluation methods to reduce the need for human judgment.

Public Attitudes During the Second Lockdown: Sentiment and Topic Analyses Using Tweets From Ontario, Canada.

Objective: This study aimed to explore topics and sentiments using tweets from Ontario, Canada, during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Tweets were collected from December 5, 2020, to March 6, 2021, excluding non-individual accounts. Dates of vaccine-related events and policy changes were collected from public health units in Ontario. The daily number of COVID-19 cases was retrieved from the Ontario provincial government's public health database. Latent Dirichlet Allocation was used for unsupervised topic modelling. VADER was used to calculate daily and average sentiment compound scores for topics identified. Results: Vaccine, pandemic, business, lockdown, mask, and Ontario were six topics identified from the unsupervised topic modelling. The average sentiment compound score for each topic appeared to be slightly positive, yet the daily sentiment compound scores varied greatly between positive and negative emotions for each topic. Conclusion: Our study results have shown a slightly positive sentiment on average during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, along with six topics. Our research has also demonstrated a social listening approach to identify what the public sentiments and opinions are in a timely manner.

Public Attitudes During the Second Lockdown: Sentiment and Topic Analyses Using Tweets From Ontario, Canada

Objective: This study aimed to explore topics and sentiments using tweets from Ontario, Canada, during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Tweets were collected from December 5, 2020, to March 6, 2021, excluding non-individual accounts. Dates of vaccine-related events and policy changes were collected from public health units in Ontario. The daily number of COVID-19 cases was retrieved from the Ontario provincial government’s public health database. Latent Dirichlet Allocation was used for unsupervised topic modelling. VADER was used to calculate daily and average sentiment compound scores for topics identified. Results: Vaccine, pandemic, business, lockdown, mask, and Ontario were six topics identified from the unsupervised topic modelling. The average sentiment compound score for each topic appeared to be slightly positive, yet the daily sentiment compound scores varied greatly between positive and negative emotions for each topic. Conclusion: Our study results have shown a slightly positive sentiment on average during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, along with six topics. Our research has also demonstrated a social listening approach to identify what the public sentiments and opinions are in a timely manner.

What social media told us in the time of COVID-19: a scoping review.

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, social media has rapidly become a crucial communication tool for information generation, dissemination, and consumption. In this scoping review, we selected and examined peer-reviewed empirical studies relating to COVID-19 and social media during the first outbreak from November, 2019, to November, 2020. From an analysis of 81 studies, we identified five overarching public health themes concerning the role of online social media platforms and COVID-19. These themes focused on: surveying public attitudes, identifying infodemics, assessing mental health, detecting or predicting COVID-19 cases, analysing government responses to the pandemic, and evaluating quality of health information in prevention education videos. Furthermore, our Review emphasises the paucity of studies on the application of machine learning on data from COVID-19-related social media and a scarcity of studies documenting real-time surveillance that was developed with data from social media on COVID-19. For COVID-19, social media can have a crucial role in disseminating health information and tackling infodemics and misinformation.